November 2015 Employment Change

The Bureau of Labor Statistics report on the Employment Situation (link) showed a gain of 211,000 jobs over October 2015. Herewith the standard chart:

The number is in the respectable range. But I got to wondering: How does it compare to other transitions from October to November—considering that November is the first month of the biggest retail months of the year? Herewith another graphic:

This one goes back to 2005 and shows changes, October to November, in the 2005-2015 period. Notice how the October-November change signals the coming of the Great Recession—and thereafter the annual increase October to November of the same number—until 2015. Last month the number, while respectable, indicates a divergence from trend. Last year we added 423,000 jobs; this year less than half as much. Does that signal that Christmas sales are moving to December—or is it a sign of continued uncertainty and lack of confidence? We shall see how December behaves.

The next chart, showing projections for 2015 based on 11 months of data, show that 2015 may also break the total annual job-growth trend since the Great Recession by under-performing 2014:

Another “Black Friday” Note

Going back to 2011, I’ve posted notes on Black Friday on LaMarotte, the last such being in 2013. The marketing efforts of an almost hysterical Retail Sector, intended to incentivize us to shop—with a mountain (or a log-pile, as Monique has put it) of paper—nicely drenched by the rain that fell from 2 am onwards early this morning. In my case it incentivizes me to think about the economy—and try to explain to myself the broad patterns I note and note again on the first Friday of every month when the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) brings its employment report. Certainly since the Great Recession (2008-2009) I cannot help but think that something really new is in the works. The Consumer Society appears to be fading. Since that time has also coincided with vast troubles all across the world, the beginnings of what may some day be called the Thirty-Years War of the Muslim culture, the explanation for a continuingly sluggish economic performance here at home cannot be entirely economic. Indeed I don’t think it is. But the spine, the core, of it, is. We may be feeling the effects of a paradox. It is that for profitability business benefits by getting rid of labor in the work place (i.e. the Luddites had it right), but shifting more and more activity to technology has the paradoxical effect to curbing demand by depriving at least a part of the population of income.

The Consumer Society was based on confidence—confidence that jobs would be present; that holding one would be rewarding; that jobs would be safe, well paying; that income would grow with seniority. Needless to say, travel would be safe—and sending children to school would not be tantamount to sending them to a potential shooting gallery as innocent targets. The Great Recession, perhaps, was a kind of moment in recent history—like the fall of the Berlin Wall. It was the falling of global confidence in the economy.

One instance of this is the transformation of fulltime, permanent into temporary employment. A graph will illustrate this. It’s just a sliver of evidence, but meaningful. I present, below, data on part time employment since 1995. I have the data from successive reports of the BLS’ Current Population Survey; for a beginning point, see the link here.

Temporary employment began rising around 2000, shot up sharply in the Great Recession, and has stayed up there ever since—indeed is growing still. In 2015 we have nearly 4.5 million more temporary workers than we had in 1995. Full time employment grew 18.2 percent (1995-2015—from 101.7 to 120.2 million), temporary employment 19.8% (same dates, from 23.2 to 27.7 million). The annual rate of growth for fulltime employment is 0.84, that of temporary employment 0.91 percent. These are small numbers, to be sure, but the phenomenon is measurable. And if you know any people in their 50s, say, looking for permanent work and being able only to get temporary assignments—and we certainly do—those facts begin to circulate…and have an ever growing effect on one’s general confidence.

October 2015 Employment Change

The October report on the Employment Situation arrived from the Bureau of Labor Statistics yesterday (link) and was, you might say, well received. BLS reported a gain of 271,000 jobs—well above the 200K level that is generally anticipated. Indeed, this month’s result has been the best for October since the end of the Great Recession as shown in the following graphic:

 To be sure, the data are subject to revision and may therefore eventually turn out to be either even better or be revised downward. The second best performance came in 2010 (a gain of 248K jobs)—when, it seemed, the economy behaved as if a normal, meaning rapid, recovery would be taking place. But 2010 did not quite deliver.

The regular month-by-month report is presented graphically below:

October looks good, but the exuberant sentiment in the media may well be premature. Personal observation while shopping—and scattered reports in the business press—suggests that an almost desperate Retail Sector was pushing everything back in time lest it miss out on what may turn out, again, to be a weak-ish holiday season.

October looks good, but projections for the year as a whole (see the next graphic) still has 2015 under-performing 2014:

A look at the job gains in some detail, thus sector by sector, also reveals signs of chronic weakness. Thus the highest gains were scored by Professional and Business Serives (78K), Health Care and Social Services (56.7K), Retail Trade (43.8K – presumably staffing up for the holidays), and Leisure and Hospitality (41K). Four sectors showed loss of jobs (Mining and Logging, Transportation and Warehousing, Utilities, and Information (Publishing and Media). Manufacturing added zero jobs! Thus the more “serious” sectors were at zero or negative growth. In other words, let’s curb our enthusiasm.

The media make much of the fact that unemployment has now reached 5 percent; but I don’t trust that number. It does not count those who’ve given up looking for work…

September 2015 Employment Change

This most recent report on the Employment Situation, for September 2015, clearly surprised the business media and the financial sector. These data are reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (link). Virtually everyone anticipated job creation at a level of roughly 200,000. The actual result—142,000—came as a shock. Furthermore, data for August and July were also revised downward by 59,000. This impelled me to update my own numbers here. My last report was for April. Back then it looked like 2015 would be weak; five months later, that trend is still weak. Herewith an updated monthly graphic followed by a projection of 2015 based on nine months of actual results:

Thus far, projected job creation in 2015 looks lower than either 2013 and 2014. Since the Great Recession, 2014 has thus far been best, producing an average monthly growth of 260,000 jobs; 2015 (thus far) has produced 198,000—versus 199,000 in 2013.

Next I show two trend lines. The first shows the growth trend between 2013 and 2014. The second the declining trend between 2014 and 2015. In both cases 2014 is shown in pink:

The big picture since the Great Recession (visible on the first, the monthly graphic) is one of hesitant growth. What we must have is around 87,000 new jobs per month—to keep up with our population growth. We’ve averaged well above that; therefore we are not in any dire trouble. But neither have we resumed, or are likely to resume, the exuberant celebration of a Consumption Culture. That game requires confidence; and no matter a few points increase in Consumer Confidence; that confidence fades as rapidly as it increases.

April 2015 Employment Change

The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes employment changes on the first Friday of each month (link)—for the previous month. Employment in April increased by 223,000. A lower number had been anticipated, hence sighs of relief came yesterday. 2015, however, is not looking all that energetic. If the economy’s performance January through April is projected for the entire year, the results indicate that employment growth in 2015 will be lower than in 2013 and 2014. Such an outcome is not very likely, but it does show that something significant has changed since the Great Recession. When economies begin to produce patterns similar to the annual seasons—now better, now worse—the safe presumption is that something is missing; in this case it is public belief that things are destined, always, to get better: unlimited growth, in other words. Public confidence.

Herewith the two graphics that show monthly data from December 2007 forward and annual results for 2007 through 2014 (actual) and for 2015 (projection):

If we examine how April’s employment gains were distributed, we note the following: The numerically largest increase in employment came in the two largest sectors, Professional and Business Services and Education and Health Services (62,000 and 61,000 jobs respectively). Construction, a relatively small sector, gained significant number of new jobs—45,000. Two sectors (Mining and Logging and Wholesale Trade) lost employment (-15,000 and -4,500 respectively). The other sectors all had small gains. The continuing and persistent trend is an increase in private sector services, including private education.  In terms of total size, Government, which represents 15.5 percent of total employment (all those public sector teachers) only gained 10,000 jobs; in effect it lost share of total employment again in April. The tax cutters ought to be rejoicing; those who long for Big Picture improvements ought to mourn.

Speaking of share of total employment, nine sectors lost share, including Mining and Logging, Manufacturing, the Trades, Information, Financial Services, Leisure and Hospitality, and Other Services; the biggest loser was Government. Utilities were unchanged. The share shifts are tiny, but the cumulative picture is not that of an economy in uniform growth but one growing because an aging population is exerting a new demand (Health Care and Social Assistance) and because industry is more and more into management (Professional and Business Services) rather than actually making or delivering goods.

Employment Update: February 2015

The first Friday of the month brings us the Employment Situation courtesy of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (link). In summary, the economy added 295,000 new jobs. The BLS, however, revised January results downward (-18,000 jobs); hence the net increase since the last report here has been 277,000 jobs. In the 2010-2015 period, this has been the second best result for February yet; the best came in 2013 when we had a gain of 314,000 jobs.

The graphic above shows the monthly progress from the “grand canyon” of the Great Recession to the present. We’ve yet to match the huge monthly gain in May of 2010, but the overall pattern shows steady growth in economic health.

Taking results for January and February and projecting the entire year 2015 based on these preliminary results, it appears that 2015 will outperform the earlier years of the recovery—as shown in the second graphic.

We had recovered all jobs lost in the Great Recession in December of 2013*. Since then I have been tracking how we are doing recovering what I’ve been calling the “Labor Force Growth Deficit”—thus jobs required just to keep up with the growth of the labor force. As of the end of 2013, we needed to recover 4.19 million jobs. Of these we have now recovered 87 percent, leaving just 13 percent still to recover. Growth in the labor force alone requires us to gain 87,300 jobs every month minimally. Any gains above that number are net gains for the economy as a whole. The graphic above shows us how we are progressing.

Now for a brief look at where the growth has been most prominent. February job gains divide as follows: The Goods Producing Sectors’ share has been 9.8 percent, Private Service Producing Sectors accounted for 87.8 percent, and Government for 2.4 percent. Retail Trade alone, part of Services, accounted for more jobs than Mining, Logging, Construction, and Manufacturing put together. That does not please me much. And biggest gainer within Services was Leisure and Hospitality. Doesn’t please me much because, for me, a really robust economy is based on Goods Production; but seeing that sector come to dominance again is a bit of an idle dream.
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*This date, thanks to later data revisions, is wrong. It should be April 2014. 

Employment Update: January 2015

At this time of the year, labor force numbers are presented, by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, in fully revised form—with the revisions reaching years back in time. This year’s revision do not change the overall pattern of developments except in one regard. Numbers for 2014 have been revised upward significantly. In my last report I showed job gains for 2014 at 2.96 million; the revised numbers lift the year to 3.12 million. Since 2014 was better than initially reported, total job losses of 8.7 million (not changed) were recovered earlier (by December 2013) than earlier reported (by May 2014). It took us four years to recover all of the jobs lost in 2008 and 2009.

Job gains in January 2015 were 257,000, below the (revised) 329,000 (versus last month’s report of 252,000). Therefore the projected annual results for 2015 are presently lower than the actual 2014 results, but it’s early days yet. The January figure this year is better than in all earlier years, except 2012, since the Great Recession.

Herewith the two charts I usually show—month by month and then annualized. In the second chart, the 2015 figure is a projection.

Since the economy has, since the end of 2013, almost entirely caught up with job gains needed to support population growth as well (about 80 percent), the motivation for this series is beginning to fade. We are recovering. But it took a long time.

Employment Update: December 2014

Another year has passed and therefore we have complete numbers for 2014 issued today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (link).

I’ve tracked these data on a monthly basis (with two or three skips only) since February 2010. The series, from March 2011 forward, can be found on this version of LaMarotte. My purpose, when I first began, was to see how long it would take the U.S. economy to recover the total jobs lost in 2008 and 2009, the Great Recession, 8.7 million jobs. Well, it took four full years (2010-2013) and five months to recover the lost jobs. After that, from June through the present, the economy has been recovering the jobs lost due to an absence of actual job growth since 2008, a total of 6.6 million jobs. As of December of 2014, we have recovered 22.1 percent of those jobs as well, suggesting that “normal,” meaning status quo ante, will be reached some time in 2015—unless another recession sets in this year.

Now for the December 2014—and the year 2014—results. In December we gained 252,000 new jobs, a healthy number. November had the largest gain in 2015, 353,000 jobs. For the year as a whole, we gained a total of 2.961 million jobs, the best performance since 2010. Graphics by month and by year follow:

In this report, annual figures all show actual (rather than projected) data. The 2014 total, however, may be (and most likely will be) revised by BLS in February. Given current trends, the revision may very well be upward.

As we wave good-bye to 2014, the U.S. economy is acting robust and the dollar is strong. Gas prices are at their lowest in a very long time. By contrast, a sense of crisis still wafts over Europe. China’s growth has softened. Japan is still in its now decades-long slump—perhaps showing what the future holds for the global economy. We shall see. My own view is that there must surely be a Third Way—something other than frenetic growth on the upside and abysmall slumps on the other. 2015 may show us which way things will be trending.

Employment Update: October 2014

October jobs report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (link), called The Employment Situation, issued on November 7, 2014. Last month’s result, a gain of 248,000 jobs, was revised upward to 256,000, a gain of 8,000 jobs. And the October result showed a gain of 214,000 jobs. The updated graphic, which also shows other changes in earlier months, amounting to an additional addition of 31,000 jobs, follows:

The net result is continued growth in jobs. This growth was distributed as follows: Goods Producing sectors: 13.1% of gains, Service Providing: 84.6 %, and Government: 2.3%. Within the Services Providing sectors, temporary employment showed a substantial growth of 7.1% of all new jobs added, which is a sour note here. The only sector showing losses was Information, which includes the media, -4,000 jobs.

Herewith a tabulation of gains by each sector, with numbers representing jobs in thousands:

Total nonfarm	214.0
Total private	209.0
Mining and logging	1.0
Construction	12.0
Manufacturing	15.0
Wholesale trade	8.5
Retail trade	27.1
Transportation and warehousing	13.3
Information	-4.0
Financial activities	3.0
Professional and business services	37.0
Education and health services	41.0
Leisure and hospitality	52.0
Other services	3.0
Government	5.0

The projection for the year is shown in the next graphic:

In this chart actual data are shown for all years except 2014; results for that year are projected based on 10 months of actual data. In the post-recession period, 2014 is shaping up as the best year yet.

Employment Update: August 2014

Numbers for August, released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics yesterday (link), produced an interesting mix of reaction. Some observers deplored the results, some suggested that BLS hadn’t gotten them right, yet others pointed out that uneven performance of this indicator is a normal phenomenon.

The BLS reported that 142,000 jobs were created in August. Those who expected at least 200,000 were disappointed. At the same time, BLS also revised July results downward from 209,000 to 181,000, a loss of 28,000 jobs. Therefore the net gain in August was just 114,000 jobs.

The Retail sector lost 8,400 jobs—once more underlining that consumer confidence may not be as robust as assumed. The Information sector (read communications media) lost 3,000. Manufacturing employment remained unchanged from July. Mining and Construction both produced fewer jobs than in July. The pattern is familiar by now. The basic industries are still sluggish. All the gains are coming from the Service categories.

Herewith the monthly chart, with July colored tan to indicate that results for the month were revised downward:

Data showing annual results and an annualized projection for 2014 are next:

Last month the 2014 projection was 2.774 million for the year. This month the projection has dropped to 2.598 million because of the July changes and the lackluster August results. The projection for 2014, however, still remains the best since 2007.

In May of this year, the economy recovered the loss of 8.663 million jobs lost in the Great Recession. Since then I’ve been tracking recovery of new jobs not created while we were making up losses. To keep up with the growth in the workforce, a number driven by demographics, we need to create 87,300 jobs every month. Once that number is met, anything in excess may be counted against what I’ve labeled the Growth Deficit. That number stood at 6.635 million in April, just before we erased the losses created by the Great Recession.

As of July, we had already recovered 7.1 percent of that deficit. The numbers were good enough in August to change that recovery rate to 8.9 percent, as shown in the last graphic:

The trend is still positive, but some kind of “new normal” seems to try to deny the eager observers of the economy the triumphant feeling that we’re heading for what we really like: “irrational exuberance.”

Employment Update: July 2014

Since the last Employment Update that I published, for April 2014, three others have been issued by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the last one, for July, here. I’ve been diverted from blogging by various changes in our lives, most notable buying and selling houses and, for us, a big move.

In that period, wouldn’t you know it, in May 2014, to be exact, the U.S. Economy finally erased the job losses produced by the Great Recession in 2008 and 2009. That job loss was 8.663 million jobs, measured as follows:

In December 2007, total employment stood at 138.35 million. In December 2009, it had dropped to 129.687 million. The difference between these dates is the loss. In May 2014, employment finally reached 138.497 million, therefore just barely exceeding the previous high at the end of 2007. By July of this year, that last Employment Report from the BLS, total employment was 139.004 million, therefore still growing in the right direction.

An updated chart, showing the economy’s performance since December 2007, follows. Following it is a chart showing total losses and gains, actual for 2007-2013 and an annualized projections for 2014.

Now that we have recovered the jobs lost in the Great Recession, another process is beginning. It is the creation of new jobs necessary to meet the needs of population increase—to accommodate the growth of the labor force. As I have shown before (here), in the 2010-2020 period, we need to add 87,300 jobs every month just to keep up with the population. If we take the period 2008-2013, plus the first four months in 2014 (when we were still just replacing lost jobs), we were building a deficit. The period described is 76 months. The deficit, therefore was 6.635 million jobs as April 2014 ended.

Since April, we have had job gains in excess of 87,300 every month. In May, with job gains of 229,000, 141,700 jobs (229-87.3) could be counted against call it the accumulated Growth Deficit of 6.6 million jobs. The economy is now in sunnier climes. Therefore in just the May to July period we’ve already managed to recover 7.1 percent of that deficit—rather than adding yet another 87,300 jobs to it—as in the last 76 months. A graphic shows this change.

Good news, by and large.

Employment Update: April 2014

The jobs numbers for April, published today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (link), should cheer people on this rainy, overcast day here in the Detroit region. Job gains in April came in at 288,000. In addition, numbers for March were also revised, upward, by 36,000 jobs.  Here is the picture to date:

We are finally out-pacing job growth in 2013. In that year the economy gained  821,000 jobs January through April. In 2014 the equivalent job gains are 866,000. This in turn lifts the annualized projection for 2014 above any year of the recovery (2010-2014). That chart follows:

The projection for 2014 is made by adding all job gains, dividing the sum by 4 (for four months) and then multiplying that result by 12.

One result of this modest surging in jobs creation is that we have almost recovered all the jobs lost in the 2008-2009 Great Recession. We’ve recovered 98.9 percent; still 1.1 percent to go. The pie that follows shows the situation graphically.

Last, a look at how the sectors participated in this employment gain.

Of fourteen major sectors, two showed loss of employment (Utilities and Information). The last column of the table compares shares, namely share of total employment and share of total gains. Using that technique, we see that eight of fourteen major sectors performed worse, i.e., they gained less than their share of total employment. The worst performer was—again this month—the Government.  The best performers were Professional and Business Services and Construction.  On to next month…

Employment Update: March 2014

The Bureau of Labor Statistics issued its employment report yesterday (link). BLS reported a gain of 192,000 jobs in March and also revised its February results, lifting February gains from 175,000 to 197,000, an additional gain of 22,000.

The Media reported these gains with an air of great optimism. The numbers were decent in my eyes too, but not enough to become enthusiastic. In effect, after acknowledging the February upward correction, job gains in March fell below February as shown in the month-by-month chart going back to December of 2007:

As of March we had gained 682,000 jobs in 2013 and 542,000 in 2014. So we are lagging 2013. Indeed, if we go back to 2012, we’d gained 829,000 that year. The patterns, therefore, suggest sober reflection more than banging of kettles and hopeful stares at the Dow.

Not surprisingly, translating the current result into the annual projection for 2014, shown in the next graphic, we see that, looking ahead, 2014 looks like it might underperform both 2012 and 2013. I don’t think this gloomy picture will hold. We are improving. Last month the projection was for a total gain of 1.9 million jobs; this month we project 2.2 million. If we have gains like that every month, we’ll be looking fine by December 2014.

Now a look at changes by sector. The following table shows the details:

Of fourteen major sectors, one showed loss of employment (Manufacturing) and one zero growth (Government). The last column of the table compares shares, namely share of total employment and share of total gains. Using that technique, we see that six of fourteen major sectors performed worse, i.e., they gained less than their share of total employment. The worst performer was Government (again).  The best performers were Professional and Business Services and Construction. The Housing sector seems to be recovering—and that is a good sign indeed. Where Housing goes, there the economy tends to follow.

Based on the most recently published and updated BLS statistics, we are still shy of recovering the total of jobs lost in 2008 and 2009. We’ve recovered 95.1 percent of jobs lost but still have 4.9 percent to go. That percentage translates to 422,000 jobs. If we keep growing at 192,000 a month, we’ll have caught up in three months.

Employment Update: February 2012

The employment numbers for February appeared March 7, i.e., as always, on the first Friday of the month, but this time I failed to put them up. The gain in jobs, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (here), of 175,000 was welcome news after a rather dreary jobs report the month before. Less loudly noted was the fact that the January figure of 113,000 was also revised upward this month by 25,000. Therefore the net gain, since the last report has been 200,000 jobs. The picture looks like this:

The projected jobs performance for the year 2014, presented in the next graphic, is lower than in any earlier year of the recovery with the exception of 2010. The current pattern, based on two months of data, may change if the economy is bursting with hidden energy that a simple run of bad weather has kept indoors for the time being. We shall see. What I keep wondering about, now that we’ve entered the fifth year of recovery and still haven’t caught up with the 2008-2009 job losses (see below), is whether the old days of soaring consumption will return or not. The One Percent, after all, may have all the money, but they cannot carry the economy entirely on their own shoulders. How many $1,200 handbags can you purchase, after all? Eventually it gets a little boring. We shall see, of course, but in my life, anyway, I’ve never before seen such a doldrums as this one. Facebook and Twitter, we pray that you rush to our rescue.

A look at the performance of the economy’s broadest sectors is provided by the following tabulation:

As in much of the period of the recovery so also in February, the Goods-producing sector gained, in proportion of its total share of employment, fewer jobs than the Services-providing sector. And Government has done worse than either of the others. These days that’s par for the course. The current loathing of anything “public” or “public sector” is certainly not helping keep the nation employed.

Last I present the chart showing how many of the total jobs lost in 2008-2009 we have regained in the four-years-and-counting period since the Great Recession, sort of, faded. The total of jobs lost was 8.663 million; jobs recovered to date are 8.012 million. Almost there but not quite yet. We still have a sliver more to go. Then we can start creating the jobs that simple population increase dictates that we should have created in this same recovery period. Clicking on the image will enlarge it.

I posted some estimates in the summer of 2012 (link) on the jobs that need to be added just to keep up with population growth. For the period 2010-2020 that number turned out to be 87,300 per month—lower, thanks to structural changes in the demographics, especially an aging population, than in 1982-1992, when it was 149,200. Applying that number to the 50-month period since the Great Recession, we see that, as of this month, we should have recovered the 8.7 million jobs lost in 2008-2009 plus 4.365 million due to population growth alone. When my pie finally shows us having regained all of the lost jobs, I’ll start a new one to show how long we have yet to go to recover the number that demand for new jobs that has created since.

Employment Update: January 2014

All right, let’s kick off reporting on the employment situation in 2014. We’ve added 113,000 new jobs. At the same time, however, the Bureau of Labor Statistics also published major revisions to its employment series going all the way back to the year 2000. Such changes take place from time to time. The nature of these changes is summarized by BLS thus:

Establishment survey data have been revised as a result of the annual benchmarking process and the updating of seasonal adjustment factors. Also, household survey data for January 2014 reflect updated population estimates.

The consequence of these changes is that all the numbers I use here (going back to November of 2007) also change. Therefore all the charts you see here have been updated to reflect benchmark adjustments and population estimates. The net effect of these changes, as measured from November of 2007, is to add 110,000 jobs to the labor force. According to the changes, the job losses were greater in the 2008-2009 period (worse by 85,000 jobs) but the recovery has been stronger than reported earlier (better by 195,000 jobs). The net effect is that 110,000 gain over previous reports.

Looking at the charts, however, the basic pattern has not changed. But as of January 2014, we have now recovered 90.2 percent of jobs lost in 2008-2009—and have 9.8 percent to go.

The job gains in January, however, are rather anemic at 113,000. If that pattern continues, job gains in 2014 will only be 58 percent of 2013. Such an outcome, however, is highly unlikely. Job gains in January had much to do with wretched weather conditions, a “too much” or “too little” of everything: too many storms, too cold, and too much snow on the one hand and too little water on the other. Everything’s connected—and climate change has its influence on this series too…

Herewith the revised chart showing monthly change since the end of 2007. Comparing this chart with last month’s shows that the pattern has not been changed by the BLS revisions. The BLS press release on which these data are based is here.

As I did last year, so again this year, I am showing, in the following graphic, projected performance in 2014. The projection simply assumes that actual data, as of the time of publication, will be the same for the rest of the year. The formula is total job gains in the year, divided by the number of months covered, times 12. Today’s result is not encouraging but will undoubtedly lift as we plod on.

The unemployment rate remains at 6.6 percent. This is a figure I rarely mention because it is based on estimates of the work-force, those actually working and those actively seeking employment. Those who’ve given up are excluded from the work force although, if jobs were available, they would gladly work.

A positive note for January: employment grew in construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, and mining. Three of those four growing sectors are basic industry.

Employment Update: December 2013

Well, employment data for 2013 are now all in, and the results bring echoes of that well-known saying: “Not with a bang but a whimper.” The economy gained 74,000 jobs in December. Revised November estimates added an extra 38,000 to the total jobs gained. Those two figures added produce a gain of 112,000. As a consequence of this, the economy’s total performance in 2013 fell 7,000 jobs below the 2012 performance: 2012: 2.193 million; 2013: 2.186 million. These data come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (the press release is here).

To sum up the annual performance, herewith a graphic showing job growth (or loss) from 2007 through and including 2013.

The monthly performance is shown in the next visual. It looks there as if, in December, the economy sort of gave up—just as the year ended.

Finally, herewith the pie chart showing how much of the 2008-2009 job loss has been recovered so far. The answer is 87.2 percent—after four years of trying.

As 2013 ended, great exuberance filled the business media because the Stock Market had performed well through 2013. Those of us who look at job generation as the real measure of economic recovery are entitled to answer that exuberance by saying: “Hold the Hallelujahs, please!” We’re not there yet. First let us recover all the jobs lost. Then let us reflect, in employment, the actual growth in population. And then, finally, we shall have reached the status quo ante, the 2007 levels.

Employment Update: November 2013

November’s job gains at 203,000 are slightly lower than they were in October. October’s results, as reported last month, were adjusted upward by 8,000 jobs to result in 212,000 jobs. So, you might say, we are on an even keel approaching the final month of the year. These data were published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (the press release is here). The new chart graphic the jobs situation follows:

With November’s result reflected in the projections for the year 2013 (based on year-to-date data), 2013 is shown to have performed better than the last three years. The current projection is that the annual growth in jobs will be 2.263 million (last month it was 2.236 million). In 2013, thus far, the economy has created, on average, 5,700 more jobs per month than in 2012. The chart showing the projection comes next.

The data published yesterday also got us closer, in percent measurement, to the recovery of all jobs lost in the disastrous years 2008 and 2009. At present, we have recovered 85.9 percent of lost jobs (last month we’d recovered 83.4%).

Employment Update: October 2013

Employment data for October 2013 are somewhat ambiguous. A total of 204,000 jobs had been added to the economy, significantly higher than the 148,000 jobs reported for September 2013 last month. But, as usually, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which reports these data monthly (the press release is here), revised September numbers upward by 60,000 jobs. September results, therefore, at 208,000, were actually better, by a hair, than October results. And for all we know, October results may also be revised next month. We’ll see. Tracking these numbers requires a certain amount of patience before real trends become believable.

Herewith the updated chart:

This year I have been publishing projections of year-to-date numbers out for the total year. Last month and the month before, the annual projections were under-performing 2012. This month’s data show a positive change. It now looks like 2013 will produce a total gain in jobs of 2.236 million, better than the economy managed to do each year in the 2010-2012 period. The graphic showing annual data and the 2013 projection follows:

At the same time, what with nearly four years of recovery behind us, we’ve only recovered 83.4 percent of the jobs lost in the 2008 and 2009 period. At this month’s rate of adding to jobs, we’ll have to wait almost seven months more before we have achieved the employment level we enjoyed in December 2007.

Employment Update: September 2013

Thanks to the government shutdown, this monthly report came yesterday, some 19 days after its regular appearance (first Friday of the month). The results are a gain of 148,000 jobs in September, lower than the number reported for August. These data come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics press release of yesterday (link). The BLS also published revisions for July and for August, netting out to an additional gain of 9,000 jobs. Herewith the graphic:

If we project year-to-date numbers to the entire year 2013, we see that 2013 is likely to turn in a lower gain in total employment than 2012 did. This month, like last, the projection has dropped. Last month in was 2.163 million jobs, this month 2.132 million. That graphic follows:

Despite the theme of the year 2013, which is Sluggish, a positive note is that all but two major sectors show gains. The two posting losses are Finance (down 2,000 jobs) and Leisure and Hospitality, down 13,000. People don’t seem to be in the mood to take a vacation.

It will be interesting to see what impact the October troubles will have had on this all-important indicator of our economic health.