September results for the employment situation were, at
best, mixed. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (link) revised the August
numbers upward, almost doubling the result, from 96,000 jobs gained to 182,000.
The gain in September, however, was 114,000 jobs, which is at best so-so. Will
they double that number too in
October? We shall see. Herewith the graphic:
It looks like 2012 might under-perform 2011 if things
continue at this pace. As of September of 2011, the economy that year had
gained 1.434 million jobs. As of September this year, the gains have been 1.334
million, a 100,000 shortfall over the year before. If I annualize 2012 results,
the data project a total gain of 1.779 million for 2012—over against 1.906
million for last year.
Alas! The economy has a mind of its own—and, IMHO, as they
say these days, what happens at the political level—or what might be done there in the way of action, so
called—has nothing to do with the behavior of the great beast. To think that an
administration, whether painted red or blue, will change things by specific
policies is equivalent to praying to the Great Pumpkin for rain in a drought.
Nonetheless, as in any decent Theater of the Absurd, the anemic number
surfacing today will be used in a full-throated way to celebrate what is
regarded as a change in Mitt Romney’s momentum.
Tracking this series, as I’ve now done for years, is most
interesting. Is there a fundamental
change visible here, or is this just a severely long drought in public
confidence? Consumer confidence is up, after all. A fundamental change, if
present, would have to have an objective cause. The best candidate is that our
economy is able to produce the necessities with fewer and fewer people. And as
employment seeps away—and public employment shrinks with relentless tax cutting
at all levels—fewer and fewer people are able to get jobs. And in such a
situation, they will still continue to buy necessities, but the flim-flam that
makes for economic growth is left on the shelves. Are tanning salons emptying?
One wonders.
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IMHO
for you illiterati means “in my humble opinion.”
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