Tax increases and mandatory program cuts, due to take place
January 1, 2013, are the so-called Fiscal Cliff. In its May 2012 report (link),
the Congressional Budget Office put the effect of that event—falling off the
cliff, thus letting the laws now in place go forward without change—at $559
billion for FY 2013. I’ve cited a slightly lower number in yesterday’s post.
This in effect results in a lowering of the total FY 2012 deficit from $1,171
to $612 billion in FY 2013. The CBO then goes on to say that this change will
weaken the economy. Therefore unemployment will increase and GDP growth will
slow. The logic behind this is that people will have less money to spend.
Spending less, the private sector will have less income. It will respond by
laying off people. That is the rock.
The hard place is the level of the National Debt. It has a legally set ceiling of $16,400
billion. According to the Treasury’s website (link), the actual debt was
$16,245 as of yesterday . We are going to exceed it fairly soon. The downside
of that, nominally, is that U.S. national debt will be down-graded as it
reaches ever higher levels of GDP. The current debt, measured against current
GDP (for the 3rd Quarter of 2012, annualized) was 102.9 percent and trending up—comparable
to China’s at 16.3 percent, and trending down.
This means that if we reduce
our deficit, by gladly falling down that fiscal cliff, we shall lose jobs and economic
momentum. If we resist going over the cliff, we shall have decent GDP and jobs
growth but, by 2016 (the next national elections), our debt to GDP ratio will
be 111.9 percent (China’s at 9.7%).
Not quite sure which way I want to jump. What helps,
somewhat, is to contemplate 1945. That year our Debt to GDP ration was 134.5
percent—and we survived. To be sure, that was war time. Maybe we are again, at
war. In more ways than one. If the GOP has its way, tax cuts will not expire and therefore, in theory at
least, people will happily be spending money to whip that sluggish GDP into a
faster trot. But to save us from breaking the Debt Ceiling—and again and again—will
require very massive program cuts. And what will that mean? Less income for
people, actually. Get rid of Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Unemployment
Insurance, agricultural subsidies, pensions, highway funds, etc. But doesn’t
that amount to the same thing? No money,
no spending, no jobs? Surely it does. So it’s a rock and a hard place,
whichever way I look.
Related post.
Related post.
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